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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."